FX Seasonality Forecast for April 2019 and FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Apr 1 - 5, 2019
I. Outcome of FX Seasonality-Based Prediction for March 2019
March was an awesome month! Aside from it being my birthday month, prices moved within my forecasted range. USD didn't drop yet as I expected though and remained in the upper side of my blue rectangles and the dollar index persisted into clinging at its resistance level.
We'll see if it will do so this month instead or if it will go against my April forecast. I'm not surprised anymore that USD acted that way though because there's still a bunch of USD bulls that were making noises last month in the chat.
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II. Forecast for April 2019 Based on Recent 10-Year FX Seasonality
AUDUSD
Assuming USD finally drops, expecting AUD to recover somehow this month (and possibly plunging down by May) based on its seasonality below-- although not that much because of its housing price issue, sensitivity to any news regarding China's economy and trade, and general dovishness of the RBA.
EURUSD
Like AUDUSD above, expecting EURUSD to slightly rally this month. Still need to be cautious though for any unexpected news & general uncertainty now regarding the delayed Brexit, and for any geopolitical and macroeconomic risks in the Euro zone.
GBPUSD
Given both its April seasonality below and EU highly likely to either accept a new deal on April 12 or accept further Brexit delay to May, I'm expecting the pound in general to bounce up starting this week.
NZDUSD
Despite the sudden dovish tone of RBNZ last week, expecting this pair to rally and recover a bit at least this month, but most likely it won't reach 0.70 despite with the month of April being historically giving the biggest bullish movement for the Kiwi in general.
USDCAD
Assuming oil continues to climb up (WTIUSD possibly reaching 64-65 this month) and USD index bouncing from its resistance, expecting this pair to plunge down to at least 1.32 given its April seasonality as well.
USDCHF
Unlike USDCAD, this pair won't drop that much-- might even rise back to 1 given that psychological level, general stickiness to the 1.01207 2018 high, and recent stock recovery.
USDJPY
Expecting this pair to remain rangebound this month, though most likely this will drop soon first given the recent recovery in the stock market and USD index possibly bouncing down from its resistance level.
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III. Forecast Attempt in S&P500, Oil and Metals for April 2019
S&P 500*
S&P 500 might climb up to 3000 this month, we'll see.
Gold*
If USD index drops to 95-96 levels this month, will definitely ride this metal to 1350. If not, then most likely gold will be range-bound especially with the recent recovery in the SP 500.
Silver*
Similar logic as gold above.
Oil*
Expecting oil to continue climbing up and probably reach 64 this month. Same reasoning as last month's seasonality forecast, and also US shale slowdown in its production because of its investors getting more cautious and demanding some returns to their investment.
*Note: Unlike FX pairs, S&P500, Oil and Metals don't really "follow" their monthly seasonality that's why I didn't include their seasonality charts anymore to avoid confusion. I don't see any consistency on them by simply eyeballing the charts.
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IV. FX Trading Ideas for the Week
AUD - Wait
Despite the sudden drop after the RBA statement earlier this morning, expecting the Aussie to rally soon at least in the short-run. Will ride any bullish opportunities, while still remaining extra cautious.AUDCAD - Wait near 0.944
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 79.5 then buy with target profit near 80.5
AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.04425 then sell with target profit@1.034
AUDUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce from 0.709 then buy with target near 0.7166
EURAUD - Wait near 1.575
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.83171 then sell with initial target profit near 1.82
CAD - Wait
Though I'm bullish in general in both oil and CAD, based on price action, it's best to wait and buy on the pullback instead (and even ride any short-term consolidation too if the risk-reward ratio is good).CADCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.7485 then sell with target profit near 0.74
CADJPY - Wait for pullback and bounce from 83.4 then buy with target profit near 84.5
EURCAD - Wait near 1.495
GBPCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.745 then buy with target profit near 1.765
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90
USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.32934 then sell with target profit near 1.3235
AUDCAD - Wait near 0.944
CHF - Wait
Despite the recent stock recovery, there's still general uncertainty in the markets especially with the "rumored" recession coming soon thanks to the inverted yield curve. Markets are still risk-off in general and I'm still bullish overall in both CHF and JPY. However, CHF might still be affected by Euro zone risks so its best to wait, and only ride any short-term trading opportunities and also other currencies' momentum.CHFJPY - Wait for bounce up from near 111.222 then buy with target profit near 112
EURCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.12075 then buy with target profit near 1.12465
GBPCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.31 then buy with target profit near 1.32
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.677
USDCHF - Wait for bounce from 1.00 then sell with target profit near 0.996
AUDCHF - Wait near 0.71
CADCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.7485 then sell with target profit near 0.74
EUR - Buy (short-term)
As mentioned above, I'm expecting euro to rally a bit, but still need to be very cautious because of risks coming from the delayed Brexit and other Euro zone risks (links above).EURGBP - Wait near 0.854
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125 then buy with target profit @126
EURNZD - Wait near 1.65
EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.122 then buy with target profit @1.13
EURAUD - Wait near 1.575
EURCAD - Wait near 1.495
EURCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.12075 then buy with target profit near 1.12465
GBP - Buy (short-term
Given Brexit being delayed further (and possibility of it being moved from April 12 to May), it's a short-term win for Scotland and other members of the UK parliamentary.GBPNZD - Wait near 1.93
GBPUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.31 then buy with target profit near 1.325
EURGBP - Wait near 0.854
GBPAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.83171 then sell with initial target profit near 1.82
GBPCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.745 then buy with target profit near 1.765
GBPCHF - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.31 then buy with target profit near 1.32
NZD - Wait
Given the shock of last week's RBNZ statement, though I'm still bullish in Kiwi in general, it's best to wait for now, and only buy once I get enough confirmation.NZDJPY - Wait near 75.5
NZDUSD - Wait for bounce from 0.6777 then buy with target profit @0.684
AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.04425 then sell with target profit@1.034
EURNZD - Wait near 1.65
GBPNZD - Wait near 1.93
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.677
JPY - Sell (short-term)
Although as mentioned above, the markets remain risk-off, given the recent recovery in equities, and also good technicals and momentum to go bearish in JPY, will ride it's short-term trading opportunities.USDJPY - Wait near 111.3
AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 79.5 then buy with target profit near 80.5
CADJPY - Wait for pullback and bounce from 83.4 then buy with target profit near 84.5
CHFJPY - Wait for bounce up from near 111.222 then buy with target profit near 112
EURJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 125 then buy with target profit @126
GBPJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 145.755 then buy with target profit near 146.5
NZDJPY - Wait near 75.5
USD - Wait
As mentioned above, I have a bearish bias on USD given its seasonality below and also that Wall.
AUDUSD - Wait for confirmed bounce from 0.709 then buy with target near 0.7166
EURUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.122 then buy with target profit @1.13
GBPUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.31 then buy with target profit near 1.325
NZDUSD - Wait for bounce from 0.6777 then buy with target profit @0.684
USDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.32934 then sell with target profit near 1.3235
USDCHF - Wait for bounce from 1.00 then sell with target profit near 0.996
USDJPY - Wait near 111.3
XAUUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1290 then buy with target profit near 1306
XAGUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 15.125 then buy with target profit near 15.25
XTIUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 61.85 then buy with target profit near 63
USDZAR - Wait for bearish continuation past 14.11 then sell with target profit @13.9
USDMXN - Wait near 19.2
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